As an aside, the US economy downturn has me worried for continued Kiva growth. I envision that charitable giving (even if they're loans, I imagine many American's budgets for Kiva fall under charity) is tied to disposable income, which can decrease quite precipitously in a recession. I guess we just have to assume that growth potential is more a matter of reaching people who haven't heard about Kiva than it is about convincing people who have heard but haven't acted on it.
Hello geekthegreek,
I think the first part of you post has been well discussed, so I won't add to that discussion. I did however, want to respond to the second part.
This is something that has been on my mind also. As long as the average number of loans per lender stays around 3, I think you have it right. Kiva will have new lenders joining who will loan once or twice and leave it at that. A few will join who will lend more, and a few more businesses or individuals may become large lenders. But I also think there will be some who hear about Kiva and say, "I can't spare anything right now" and never return. Gift certificates might be the most effective tool in this economic climate if you want to entice someone in who is feeling squeezed.
As to your comment
even if they're loans, I imagine many American's budgets for Kiva fall under charity
Well, I think this has been a topic that has been pretty well covered here at KFs. If you are interested in more discussion on this issue, i would suggest you take a look at the following threads:
http://www.kivafriends.org/index.php/topic,2051.0.htmlhttp://www.kivafriends.org/index.php/topic,1666.0.htmlhttp://www.kivafriends.org/index.php/topic,866.0.htmlThe general consensus among Kiva Friends seems to be (please correct me if I am wrong here folks) that we accept a certain amount of risk lending through Kiva and that one should never lend more than one is prepared to lose. There are certainly things one can do to minimize that risk, but it is still wise to recognize that these loans are going out to places where circumstances are not necessarily stable and can change rapidly.
In any case, I hope that information is helpful to you,
-Kerry-