$400,000 defaulted?

[Guest]

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[YowieFreak]

The default rate for the average Kiva user (shown on my Portfolio page) increased overnight from 2.96% to 5.12%.  The average ended loans figure is currently $45.87 which, when multiplied by the number of users/lenders (414,311), means that the total ended loans is approximately $19m.  An increase of 2.16% in the default rate implies an additional amount of over $400,000 now suddenly being classed as "defaulted".

Has an MFI gone bust?  Or is there something wrong with my math?

(Or is this somehow related to MIFEX?  I haven't been around long enough to be involved in that one, so I am assuming from Kiva's notes on its Partner page that all the loans outstanding from MIFEX had previously been defaulted, but maybe some weren't defaulted before and were defaulted last night?)

[Mona]

Hi Yowie,

no idea, but I have noticed that the default range also starts moving when repayments are prepared. On 15 Dec, e.g., one could notice first a move in the default range and then the repayments started to come in. After repayments were made the default rate went back to normal. So hopefully it does also this time mean nothing serious.

Best wishes,
Mona

[YowieFreak]

My portfolio page showed the average default rate was:

• 3.11% from 27 Nov (after it increased from 1.24% - I assume because of MIFEX) until 16 December - so no change at all leading up to repayment-time
• 2.90% on 17 December (I assume because the 15 December repayments gave a larger pool of ended loans to spread the defaults across)
• 2.85% on 18 December (ditto reason) and until 31 December
• 2.95% on 1 January (possibly related to the problem that caused the "Total Value of all Loans" to drop by $2.5m) and until 5 January
• 2.96% on 6 January
• 5.12% on 7 January
  

I have seen changes in the delinquency rate around repayment time, quickly dropping back down after the repayments are processed, but not seen changes like this in the default rate.

[Nancy08]

What happened with MIFEX?

[wthepoo]

Mona,

what starts moving is the "delinquency", I believe, not the "defaults".


Yowie,

no idea, so far I believe it's a glitch. At least the loans listed as "defaulted" have not changed significantly.

Instead of 1,824 at the last count:

MFI      defaults       $ amount       % by $ amount

MIFEX      734           337,158          62.5%
WEEC       886           179,444          33.3%
SEED       184            13,965           2.6%
REDC         5             3,805           0.7%
Shurush      7             2,515           0.5%
E Afr Beta   7             2,445           0.5%
HKL          1               162           0.0%
         
totals:   1824           539,494         100.0%

there are now 1,827. Out of curiosity, I checked - the HKL loan was marked "defaulted" by mistake and is now "Active", again, but four new borrowers/loans are considered to be in default:

Fadila Terzić from Bosnia (could be a mistake, though - it makes little sense)

Josepha Bih Ambe from Cameroon (passed away on July 31)

Perpetual Sirri Nche from Cameroon (passed away on September 2)

and another loan from REDC, Bulgaria - I believe it's this one:

Zeira Smailova Cherkezova


So unless the stats are anticipating something yet to be made official and posted to the loans, Kiva should do fine...

Best wishes,
Wolfgang.

[YowieFreak]

What happened with MIFEX?

From what I can make out, MIFEX was skimming approximately 35% off the top of each loan to cover their own expenses, which meant that they had to borrow even more so that they could repay the money they had skimmed off previous loans - with the whole thing snowballing until they couldn't pay back anything.

http://www.kiva.org/about/aboutPartner?id=7 gives Kiva's info re the matter.

There is also a topic in this forum somewhere related to it.

[YowieFreak]

Wolfgang,

Oooh - more statistical stuff for me to look at!!  (I love statistical stuff!)  Is there a webpage somewhere which shows the defaulted loans?

Regards,
  Ian

[AccountAbility]

What happened with MIFEX?

Nancy - You can get a reading on MIFEX and Kiva Friends thoughts on it all in this thread:

http://www.kivafriends.org/index.php/topic,2923.0.html

Dan

[wthepoo]

Is there a webpage somewhere which shows the defaulted loans?

Hi Ian,

not a webpage as such - but you can go to any page listing Kiva-Loans (like: http://www.kiva.org/app.php?page=businesses) and select "Defaulted" as "Status".

Best wishes,
Wolfgang.

PS: I am sorry, but I can't tell you where Peter found or how he compiled the aggregated amounts per MFI (maybe making use of the Field Partners' pages?).

[YowieFreak]

not a webpage as such - but you can go to any page listing Kiva-Loans (like: http://www.kiva.org/app.php?page=businesses) and select "Defaulted" as "Status".

Duh - that was so obvious - I am kicking myself for not having realised it!!  It's only a few minutes since I did a similar query to look at defaulted loans for MIFEX, but I never even thought of doing one for "All" businesses and looking at the number of matches.

Thanks Wolfgang.