Input for Kiva staff on the "Popularity algorithm"

[Guest]

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[Dagfinn]

A very well written and to the point Colette 

You have grasped the core issue, presented a splendid solution and for that you are the love of mine for today.

- Dagfinn A

[JoanW]

A lot of good ideas so far.

Until I read something on KF I actually thought that "Popular" meant most liked by the people. If Kiva decides to keep their current sort, please change the name to better reflect whatever it actually means.

If it must be called Popular - then I agree with Robert's idea of having it actually measure Popularity.

I agree with the others that the main reason for the default sort is to suck in new lenders and encourage them to loan. To that end, having pages of almost identical loans makes no sense. For that reason a default sort of New->Old or Old->New also makes little sense.

I have a problem with currency risk or lack of translation affecting the sort - those are personal values. Others want loans with videos to get a boost, or...or...or....  It becomes never ending, and someone else is still manipulating which loans have a chance at funding.

What alternatives do I suggest? Lots of good ones already posted here. But I would ask: do we really need to have a default sort at all?

I would change the Lend page to show Sample Loans...listing of 20 as the current page....without the ability to move to other pages via the 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ...39 Next Page >> along the bottom. Note: I would like to see this number raised in general to 30 - even if nothing else changes) The Sample Loans would be random, with certain limitations - one loan per MFI or country <OR> one loan per sector.  It should be really random so every time the page is reloaded there is something different. To move off the Sample Loans (aka Lend) page you would be required to use the current Find Loans bar (minus the Popularity sort or with an actual Popularity sort).

The benefits of this

• Every loan has an equal shot at the first page of loans
• Dynamic and changing first page of loans
• Lots of variety on first page of loans to attract new lenders or people just checking out the site
• It will not detract from the more active lenders experience - they still can do their search/sort as always
• By calling it Sample Loans you get rid of the problem of a Popular list that does not measure popularity or a Random list that is not truly random.
• By being random, it is easier to get real data to see what the affect of having "face time" on the first page of loans is on loan funding - without the built-in bias caused by the artificial manipulation of the current "Popular" sort
• Requires minimal backend changes to current programming

It also requires lenders to do something to get to the other loans - I hope this would encourage new lenders to start to learn how they can best find loans that interest them. Or for those who can't be bothered, just sit on the Lend page and keep refreshing until you found something you like.

As for the ideas of advanced search, tagging, cloud, remembering my preferences, etc - I think they are great and should be included into a paid membership package....but that is another topic

Colette's ideas for the main page are perfect - for all the reasons she stated.

[AccountAbility]

 

Now we are getting down to some substantive improvements.  Hopefully these are also not too difficult to implement.  Some of the other suggestions are excellent enhancements but may take significant resource.

Dan

[Marilee]

I agree with Kiva's aim of attracting new lenders with variety.

My opinion on the best way to do that*:

1) For the front page, keep a "popular loans" sample.  Based solely on what people have been funding recently, not what's new or has a video or anything else.  Just 2-5 (oh, I see now it's 8 - that's good) of the last {100 loans/12 hours of loans} someone funded, possibly with some weighting for the loans with multiple recent lenders or a high percent complete.  Provide this sorting option on the lend page as well, and for those who like reading the fine print, say that it's based on recent funding.  I'd love to rubberneck and see what's getting a lot of funding in the last hour.

2) For the first lend page, I'm all for the random sample (with no "next page" arrows, just a re-randomize button).  I really like the 24 hour waiting period, too.  Thanks for the Harry Potter analogy, Colette!

If you want to get fancy, you could refine it by taking the {percentages of regions/gender balance/occupation balance/group size} of the loans currently on the site and make the 20 random loans roughly match those proportions.  Trying to make it match more than one at a time would be madness, but picking one of those four factors each time would be very easy.

If you're concerned about the recently funded loans not showing enough variety, apply the proportion refinement to those!  (Based on the proportions of the sample you're randomizing [the most honest way], or on the proportions of the whole lot, either way you'll get variety.)

I don't like the default FIFO option because it does not give incoming lenders (including me) a tasty variety to look at, and I agree that it dumps loans that informed lenders have been avoiding on the unsuspecting.

* I'm not actually saying anything new, mostly "hear hear"ing to those above me and being picky about exactly my way, mine mine mine.

Edited to correct the number of front page slots.

Also, I agree with the comment below me Charity made: if you really want to see what's popular, you'll have to give people a random sample to find out, at least for a few months.  If you're not comfortable with that being the long-term behavior, call it a live data collection period to refine the popularity algorithm.  If you find any real live trends other than "we loan to women a lot," maybe the popularity algorithm can benefit by this.

[cats]

There have been many good suggestions on this thread for making sure that all loans have an opportunity to appear on the front page.
My thought is a slight variation on what has already been suggested - use an algorithm that rotates thru the inventory of loans currently on the site, making sure that each one gets an hour (possibly more) of exposure in the 8 spots on the front page - depending on how many loans are on the site, that should ensure that each loan appears on the front at least once a week (more often if there are fewer loans). I would suggest eliminating the popularity sort altogether since it is inherently biased and "subjective".  The listing created when View All Entrepreneurs is selected could be any of the existing sorts, although I would think that Old to New would be the most effective in helping slower funding loans.
I think everyone's suggestions are all headed towards seeing that the older inventory of loans shows up on the front page more often so that they get funded.  Essentially the same techniques that successful merchandisers use all the time.

[charity]

I think that if Kiva wants to get a handle on what makes a "popular" loan (which I don't know if that is really a goal or not - might be useful for providing training to MFIs, etc), they need to have the default 'sort' be completely random.  Otherwise you can analyze data all you want, but the data will have an inherent bias which won't really be accounted for. 

Truthfully, I don't think you can have an actual "popular" sort without a default random sort.  As others have said, the current "popular" sort is more self fulfilling prophecy and chance (as to when the loan was loaded) than anything. 

So I think the default sort should be straight random.  If they want a popularity sort then it could be a search option, and could be based on page visits and funding rate.  Truthfully, I think the default being random and then having popularity as an option could be very valuable, because it would ACTUALLY highlight the 'cool' loans - something the current 'popularity' sort (or any sort that uses statistics based off a non-random data set) cannot do. 

[catlest]

I have read the discussions and I have this to offer: Since the LEAST popular loan applicants are almost always from places like Lebanon, Tajikistan, etc. -- countries Americans don't know whether to "trust" or not -- I think they need some extra boost.

True, you don't want to make the home page nothing but Tajikistan & Azerbaijan, but how about scrapping the "popularity" algorithm and having a mix on the first page of the "lend" section: You can have some "star" loans, some with videos, and then a selection of those ending soon -- say 2 or 3 per region.

Thus there will be some from Central Asia, some from Africa, some from South America, etc. I think you'll get more interest in the "unpopular" areas.

While the picture and the pitch are important, I really don't think that's the entire reason some places are 'popular' or not. And unless you know why someone who doesn't take a good picture is less deserving to have a loan, I don't think it's good to promote some as "popular."

Anyhow, aren't we supposed to be bucking preconceived ideas in this organization? 

[AccountAbility]

I have read the discussions and I have this to offer: Since the LEAST popular loan applicants are almost always from places like Lebanon, Tajikistan, etc. -- countries Americans don't know whether to "trust" or not -- I think they need some extra boost.

First, I don't think this is true. I doubt that "place" is a significant factor at all, other than sometimes too many from one place makes it harder to get them all funded.  Other factors play a more important part--which is where Kiva originally got the idea of "popular"--who are lenders lending to.  But tinkering with that basic premise makes for something other than "popular" (--perhaps just "default" if they need to keep it at all.)  It definitely influences the market in an artificial way.

Having some random or rotating sort displayed on the home page still sounds preferable, with all sort options available to be displayed on another page.  And there certainly have been some excellent suggestions for additional NEEDED sorts.

Dan

[karehmer]

Please forgive me if this has been mentioned already; I've just skimmed most of this thread.

Initially I loved the idea of FIFO being the default listing.  But there's one problem I see with that...  What happens on the 1st of the month, when most loans are posted?  MFI's in Cambodia/Viet Nam post their loans starting off the day... then come Azerbaijan/Tajikistan... then when their day starts comes Africa, then Latin America...

The FIFO method would really turn into something of an MFI/location sort.  Sure, there are some nuances in how MFIs post and when.  But I think it would quickly become stale and boring.

I think the best solution has already been discussed in-depth -- leaving the Popularity search as default, and changing the weight.  New loans with zero lenders should not be considered popular.  That, and allow for customizable and more powerful sorts and queries.  I just want to throw one more person's support in that ring.

[Skimmis]

FIFO  will be very boring with lots of similar loans presented first.
This will either turn new lenders away or prsent them with "the worst" loans.
Neither is a good idea.

Default listing should either be random, or if pupularity is keeped, no new loans or video loans should bee seeded extra.
Popularity should reflect actual populaity, give seeding based on %  founded and money founded last 24 hours.
(no  extra credits for people clicking the loan but not lending)