The poor of the world are not going to finance your currency speculation
Hey, I just wanted to say thanks for keeping this discussion going. When you said this, I admit most of the wind was taken out of my sails. I'm just a lowly physics grad student with a kid on the way, and I like to study and teach people about complex stuff simply because I enjoy it. That being said, I do have about 11 BTC and I'd like to invest it, not cash in, and the moment Kiva posts a wallet address you'll see my 11 BTC show up there; I'm not asking anyone here to buy bitcoins. I just think Kiva and their supporters should be aware of what's happening, and to prepare for the sea change.
reasons not to
1) No one uses them. Name a MFI who uses them. Name a major corporation who uses them.
You're right, I can't name a single major corporation who uses them, besides Wikileaks (if you can call them a corporation). However, a lot of mom and pop operations use them because they don't require transaction fees. Here's a bunch of merchants who use them:
http://www.bitcoinworldmarket.com/default.aspxhttps://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade2) The exchange rate. The value fluctuates, in some cases dramatically, so over the time of the loan you lose if the value increases. (i.e - if you pay 1 bitcoin in 2011 equal to $25 to fund a loan, and a year later the loan pays back $25, which is now worth .1 bitcoins if the value has increased 10 fold). If you assume you will be paid back in bitcoins, and the value goes up, the lender will need to default instead of paying you back $250.00 for your bitcoin. The poor of the world are not going to finance your currency speculation
So, this is one reason the GLBSE was created; the idea is that you can issue and sell shares to raise capital for your business. You then pay dividends to the share holders based on your profits. It all depends on how you set up the contract, but yeah obviously the payments shouldn't be based on a set bitcoin price.
3) Transaction fees. There are none for Kiva now, so why use a currency that is more costly to use ?
I didn't know Kiva had a special agreement with Paypal before starting this thread. However, bitcoin doesn't require transaction fees and involves no intermediary, so I really don't see how it could be more "costly". In fact, I can send arbitrarily small amounts of bitcoin, even fractions of a penny. This could be useful for spreading a small investment over thousands of small businesses with zero overhead.
By the way, it's great that Kiva has a special agreement with Paypal. However, they have been known to screw over their users occasionally. See
http://money.howstuffworks.com/paypal7.htm or
http://www.paypalsucks.com/ if you're interested.
4) People in Europe (or other countries like Canada etc) need to exchange their money (euros, pounds, dollars, etc) into US dollars to make a loan. Why should bitcoins have precedence over this significant population of lenders ?
This is a great example of how bitcoin helps: In most cases it's hard to exchange your local currency for US dollars without losing a substantial amount to either exchange fees or bank transfers. For example, my wife is German but has a Swiss bank account with Euros. If she wants to, she can use bitcoin to avoid the transaction fees both our banks will charge if she tried a regular bank transfer. To do this, she would first convert her Euros to bitcoin, then send bitcoins to herself for free, then convert them back to USD. MtGox is the largest USD/BTC exchange and they only charge half a percent.
Aside from that, it would be a technologically trivial matter for Kiva to accept bitcoin donations; all they would have to do is post a wallet address. However, it's not so easy for them to accept any other foreign currency.
5) A decentralized, partially anonymous currency is great for international drug dealing, why is is a good fit for kiva ? What is the benefit ? How would accepting bitcoins do anything worthwile for the working poor of the world ?
So, I think I've addressed why lenders might want to use bitcoin. Now let's think about the borrower end. Recall what happened to the Zimbabwe dollar when it inflated at a rate of millions of percentage points and how that affected Kiva loans:
http://www.kiva.org/partners/184During the period of hyperinflation, microfinance loans in Zimbabwe were extended for extraordinarily short terms and generally to cross-border traders. As of early 2010, loans continued to be extended over short time horizons reflecting short term financing for portfolios, concerns about continued economic and political stability, and frequent borrower business orientations to quick turnover activities
Since then, Zimbabwe has moved to the US dollar as it's primary currency. But what do you think happened to all the money Kiva loaned out? The problem is, inflationary currencies are not so great a store of value, especially when the government backing them decides they need to fund a war or two. When your local currency collapses, all your wealth goes with it. This is why a decentralized currency that can't be printed on a whim is so important for the developing world.
Bitcoin sounds as if it might be used for money-laundering by drug dealers, or financing of terrorists. Movements of funds, in amounts of US $10,000 or more, have to be reported to the government by financial intermediaries, and it's not legal to carry hard currency across the border. I am certain that other developed countries have similar laws, because if they did not before 2001 the US would have prevailed upon them to institute such laws after 2001. Disrupting their finances, is a tool the government uses against both terrorists and drug dealers, and it is just as important as "boots on the ground."
Bitcoin sounds like a way of getting around all the laws about movements of money. If it's not already illegal, then at least it sounds, IMO, like it might provide support to drug dealers and terrorists, and I certainly would not participate in it for that reason, nor would I encourage Kiva to do so.
It's true, anyone who wants to can send any amount of bitcoins anywhere in the world, provided they have the funds to send. If you want to send money to relatives in another country, nobody will be able to stop you. Like any form of money, whether it's diamonds or dollar bills, it can be used for good or evil. Most drug dealers use US Dollars, yet you still carry them. About 36% of our tax money goes to the US military, yet we still pay our taxes. There is a "dark net" called Tor which has been used to access the Silk Road, a website for trading illicit substances in exchange for bitcoin; it's probably used by terrorists organizations, too. However, Tor is also used by Chinese dissidents and human rights activists the world over. So, do we ban the technology because of the bad guys? Or do we find good uses for it?
By the way, the CIA's not-for-profit Venture Capital Firm recently invited Gavin Andressen (the bitcoin lead developer) to talk about the technology.
http://media.bitcoincommons.org/sites/default/files/GavinAndresenBitcoinShow06152011_0.mp3Apparently, even the government may find it useful...
--Asher